Chat: if we want product leadership to prioritize wellbeing product changes we have to come up with a killer statistic

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Message From: [/O=THEFACEBOOK/OU=EXTERNAL (FYDIBOHF25SPDLT)/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=F7A519D1BA3B4C229AE1652BAFFA72D6] Sent: 9/25/2020 10:50:24 PM To:;;;;; Subject: Message summary [{"otherUserFbId":null,"threadFbId":2893629427424698}] (9/25/2020 09:23:00 PDT): >Reminder that Nino will be presenting today at 1pm in the CDS Tech talk, about 2021 opportunities (9/25/2020 09:25:44 PDT): >yes, please join! (9/25/2020 09:54:13 PDT): >for the people in the south bay/peninsula, I just took the flu shot in Crossover in Santa Clara. There's another one in mountain view (shoreline/101). It was pretty fast and easy, I didn't have to get out of the car or touch anything and was done in 3-4 minutes. You can see the exact locations and make an appointment in the links in this wiki: https://www.internalfb.com/intern/people/portal/benefits/health-and-wellness/flu-shots (9/25/2020 14:08:53 PDT): >My takeaway was that if we want product leadership to prioritize wellbeing product changes we have to come up with a killer statistic. (That seems both simple and hard.) (9/25/2020 14:09:35 PDT): >and for some problems, probably impossible (9/25/2020 14:11:10 PDT): >@Justin, I think some of our descriptive stats from the body image survey could potentially be enough to change the conversation. (9/25/2020 14:12:10 PDT): >was this "girl teens being 32x more likely to get unsolicited sex talk on IG compared to FB" the main example? (9/25/2020 14:12:24 PDT): >i think so (9/25/2020 14:12:58 PDT): >seems like everyone is getting all hot about problematic use again, bc of the stupid documentary. could be an opportunity. (9/25/2020 14:19:20 PDT): >32x, but what's the baseline rate? (9/25/2020 14:20:18 PDT): >I don't think they mentioned it in the talk, but there was a reference in the slides. (9/25/2020 14:23:32 PDT): >Yep, glad that we didn't abandon the research. (9/25/2020 14:34:56 PDT): >the baseline was FB (9/25/2020 14:35:21 PDT): >whatever they use to detect sex talk with minors on FB, on IG it was 32X. The prevalence is low, of course (9/25/2020 14:35:26 PDT): CONFIDENTIAL - PROTECTED BY CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENT MT-IG-AG-00132387 >(fortunately) (9/25/2020 14:35:56 PDT): >Or by baseline you were asking for the specific prevalence? (9/25/2020 14:36:52 PDT): >Also, Reels seems to be everything they denounce in the stupid documentary and everything we know from our research: passive consumption of an endless feed, without any connection to the content creator. yay (9/25/2020 14:37:24 PDT): >Exactly. Ugh. (9/25/2020 14:37:26 PDT): >Passive consumption of content from people we don't care about. It's like the anti-Moira (9/25/2020 14:39:18 PDT): >I think this was the number of teens who had a DM/Messenger thread with a "sketchy" adult. So on IG there were 32x as many of these threads in the US than on FB. (Don't know how they defined sketchy.) (9/25/2020 14:40:47 PDT): >I think it's sex-talk between adult and minor, from a prior conversation I had with Nino (9/25/2020 14:41:10 PDT): >(with all the caveats about the quality of our detection of these things) (9/25/2020 14:41:17 PDT): >Oh! Glad you clarified. (9/25/2020 14:41:43 PDT): >IDK if it is restricted to non-followers (9/25/2020 14:45:55 PDT): >Yeah. So like 32x could still be small and/or the CIs could also be large. (9/25/2020 14:46:37 PDT): >Yes. I had some convesations with the child safety team when I was working on age affinity. It's low prevalence, but extremely high intensity/risk/damaging (9/25/2020 14:47:23 PDT): >The investigator I talked to at FB was the saddest person I've ever met. Seriously, it was heart breaking. (9/25/2020 14:47:59 PDT): >Not that it's not important, but I guess my point is that there's a lot of leeway in how stats are presented to achieve some goal. (9/25/2020 14:48:27 PDT): >#fakedataforgood? (9/25/2020 14:48:47 PDT): >(I kid, I kid) (9/25/2020 14:48:50 PDT): >more than #fake it's like #lyingwithstatistics (9/25/2020 14:49:19 PDT): >I think the point was that there was an effort at FB, not a lot of attention at IG and when they looked they realized it was much worse on this side of the fence (9/25/2020 14:57:27 PDT): CONFIDENTIAL - PROTECTED BY CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENT MT-IG-AG-00132388 >Q: Is loneliness decreasing over time? >A1: Yes it is, and the difference is statistically significant. >A2: No, it's not changing. The trend is basically flat. ████ (9/25/2020 15:07:56 PDT): >████ potential example of #lyingwithstatistics or...? ████ (9/25/2020 15:08:22 PDT): >A difference of opinion? Haha ████ (9/25/2020 15:11:23 PDT): >Yeah - it's tough. A1 is stats, A2 is interpretation of those stats/effect sizes as actually meaningful/important or not (which can go either way, and easily influenced by what we want to find/conclude). ████ (9/25/2020 15:26:03 PDT): >These discussions made me think about Joseph Adler's old note about cheating with deltoid: https://fb.workplace.com/notes/experimentalists/how-to-lie-with-deltoid/281428872493535/ ████ (9/25/2020 15:50:24 PDT): >That is the most amazing note I've read this year. CONFIDENTIAL - PROTECTED BY CONFIDENTIALITY AGREEMENT MT-IG-AG-00132389